A few thoughts on the Trump raid

I sense a quickening.

It seems to me that the FBI raid today on the Mar-A-Lago, Fla., home of former TV reality-show star Donald Trump, could mark an inflection point in the ongoing battle over whether America is to be a liberal or an illiberal nation state. The illiberals, of course, are represented by the Republican Party, the extremist right (sometimes one and the same) and certain elements of the far far left. The liberals are represented by those who prefer representative democracy and the rule of law over authoritarianism and Christian nationalism.

There’s a lot that can grow out of this raid. It might be the harbinger for a Trump indictment. Maybe it leads to the indictment of others. Or maybe it causes Trump to declare for 2024 sooner rather than later. It may help break the expected Republican midterm wave, or it could help boost it.

But there’s one thing I can say for sure will happen: The usual suspects in MAGA pundit and pol world are about to go over-the-top reacting to this raid in the hopes of stirring up the possibility of civil unrest, violence and threats of violence. In practicality, it means doing the same thing they did before January 6 - firing up rank and file MAGA folk through a series of massive, unfounded lies and then using these riled up deplorables to scare the bejeesus out of the administrators of justice and any other normies who just want to go about their lives.

Buckle up, because the feedback loop of craziness that exists on the right means various factions in and around MAGAville are going to try to right flank each other as much as possible. The governor of Florida is already calling the Biden admin a “regime” while several GOP sitting congressmen or congressional candidates are calling for arresting FBI agents. The rhetoric is going to get much, much worse than that.

The good news is that the raid makes it more and more likely that, while still dangerous and volatile, American illiberalism has entered its death rattle. As more and more of its leaders and influencers start getting arrested or sued, as more and more of its schemes are foiled or uncovered, there’s only two ways it can lead: Into open rebellion or electoral defeat.

If it chooses the former, it will get squashed like a bug and then drummed out of public life. And if it chooses the latter, it will be effectively neutered and powerless.

All in all, today was a great day, in the long run, for western-style liberalism.